![]() The political pendulum is the idea that political power in the United States tends to shift back and forth between the two parties, especially after one party dominates a national election. So, why does this phenomenon occur? There are two theories that rise above the rest: the political pendulum and demobilized turnout. This November, 36 states will hold governor elections, where 16 of the incumbents are Democrats and 20 are Republicans. Only once in the last 19 midterms has there been a net gain in governorships for the president’s party. The historical data mentioned, coupled with Biden’s low approval rating and recent polling, suggest they will be able to do so. ![]() Therefore, Republicans only need one extra Senate seat to gain control. As of now, Democrats hold a tight 50-50 majority, with Vice President Kamala Harris able to break any ties. This year, 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Yet still, the party of the president has lost Senate seats in 13 of the last 19 midterms. Therefore, in the Senate, big swings are less likely, and results are more affected by the dynamic of individual races. House members serve two-year terms, with every seat up for grabs in every midterm and presidential election year, while Senators serve six-year terms, with roughly one-third of Senators facing the ballot each election cycle. The power of this historical trend differs slightly across the two Congressional chambers. To take control, Republicans would need to win 5 extra seats. Since Democrats won the House popular vote by 3 points in 2020, Republicans are theoretically on track to win by 4.4 points in 2022. Since World War II, the president’s party has averaged 7.4 points worse in the popular vote for the House midterms than during the preceding presidential election year. Bush’s popularity surged after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The two years with gains by the president’s party were relatively small – only 5 seats in 1998 and 8 seats in 2002 – when Bill Clinton benefited from a strong economy and George W. Most of the losses in the House are by double digits, with some climbing especially high, like the 54 seats lost in 1994 and the 63 seats in 2010. This holds particularly true in the House of Representatives, where the president’s party has lost seats in 17 of the last 19 midterm elections. Despite being the cause of endless speculation and news coverage, midterm elections are one of the most predictable events in American politics.
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